Among the factors Trudeau and his team will take into account are these:
1. China’s economy is approaching the size of the U.S. and will inevitably overtake it within a decade. As it settles into its “new normal,” slower growth is still three to five times faster than that of the U.S. China is overtaking us as the largest trading partner of the U.S. and is the world’s largest trader. For over two decades our share of China’s imports has been slipping. Our deficit with China is twice our exports.
2. Rising house prices in Canada breed resentment here of the Chinese flooding our real-estate markets.
3. The tide of money flowing out of China is a sign of Chinese trepidation about slowing growth, the fall of the renminbi and insecurity about rule of law and property rights.
4. Global political and economic weaknesses present an opportunity. Languishing emerging economies, Brexit and the stagnant European Union challenge China’s economic strategy. With the right approach, we could regain some momentum in our strategic partnership.