Oh, You Bet

Source: Jonathan Freedland, U.S. Politics, As low as it gets, The New York Review of Books, September 29

…Hours before the polls closed in Britain’s Brexit referendum, the betting markets regarded it as a nailed-on 85 percent probability that the UK would vote to remain in the European Union.


3 responses to “Oh, You Bet

  1. David Schatzky

    In that case, please don’t tell us that the bookies are touting an 85 percent probability that Hillary will be the next POTUS.

  2. At the track the odds are set by the number of people who bet on different horses. Maybe bettors thought Brits would vote to stay. Punters, as the Brits call gamblers are perhaps a non-scientific sample.
    I tried to put $1,000 on Trump losing with a deluded acquaintance who supports him. He wanted ten to one odds and he thought at the time, about a month ago, that he might win. He will be Goldwatered.

  3. I don’t see how anyone can compare British betting markets with an outfit like 538, and the other polling organizations. Also, since I was in Britain at the time, I remember hearing that a lot of people didn’t bother to vote because they were sure of staying in the CU. I don’t think many Hillary supporters are as sanguine as that. And if you are and you are reading this, Get Out and Vote!!