On UK Betting Sites, Odds Grow That Trump Will Leave Before His Term Ends

Source: Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis, February 15

Will Donald Trump stay the course and remain in the White House for a full four-year term?

Yes, if you ask the man himself, but bettors are not so sure. In fact, the probability of President Trump leaving office via an impeachment or resignation before he finishes his first term has doubled over the past three months, according to British bookie Ladbrokes.

Immediately after his election win in November, the odds of Trump staying in the Oval Office for four years were 3/1, indicating a 25% chance he’d leave early. Now a little more than three weeks into his tenure, the odds have been slashed to 11/10, putting a 47% chance that he’ll resign or be impeached.

“It’s all about supply and demand and punters have been backing it and we’ve been forced to cut the odds accordingly,” Ladbrokes spokesperson Jessica Bridge said.

“As every day goes by, there’s a new Donald Trump controversy and punters are putting two and two together and backing him to leave,” she said.

Over at Paddy Power, the odds of the president resigning stand at 15/8, while the probability of an impeachment in 2017 stand at 4/1. At William Hill, odds point to a 2/1 chance of an impeachment in Trump’s first term.


2 responses to “On UK Betting Sites, Odds Grow That Trump Will Leave Before His Term Ends

  1. No mention of the grim reaper. I put that as the most likely: death by deflated ego.

  2. If it happens, which I agree is quite possible, the challenge will be to avoid the violent reactions of right wing conspiracy theorists who will believe there was a plot.